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Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Gold Miners Making More Money?



November 30, 2009 by · Leave a Comment 

By Adam Brochert, GoldSeek

Mining is a tough business and profits are rarely easy to come by. I learned the concept of the “real” price of Gold from Bob Hoye at Institutional Advisors. This concept ignores the nominal price of Gold (i.e. ignores the currency effect, which is difficult for paperbugs but easy for long term Gold bulls) and focuses on the price of Gold relative to the price of other commodities as a ratio. Mr. Hoye has his own proprietary index, but as we all stand on the shoulders of giants before us, I use my own proxy of this ratio by dividing the Gold price by other commodities indices (I typically use the Continuous Commodities Index [$CCI]).

When the ratio of the Gold price divided by a basket of commodities is rising, the “real” price is rising. This is irrespective of the nominal price. In other words, the price of Gold in U.S. Dollars could be falling while the “real” price is rising. The concept is a valid and important concept for two reasons.

First, wealth is relative. If Gold goes to $2000/oz but oil goes to $10,000 per barrel, then Gold investors are poorer if they need to use energy/in energy terms. Deflation in Gold terms has been here for a decade – it is only when paper currency is introduced into the equation that things get confusing. Let’s say Gold starts today at around $1175/oz and a house in your neighborhood costs $200,000 today. In a year, if Gold falls to $800/oz (not saying it will) and the house in your neighborhood costs $100,000 at that time are you richer or poorer? Well, both! In nominal terms, you are poorer. In other words, if your main goal in life is to accumulate as many pieces of paper issued by the unconstitutional, non-federal, for-profit federal reserve corporation, you are poorer. However, if your main goal is to buy a house some day, you are wealthier in this scenario.

As a strong believer in Gold during the Kondratieff Winter cycle that we have entered (it ain’t over yet, trust me), I believe paper currencies will also deflate relative to Gold rather than gain value relative to Gold as people like Bob Prechter think. It’s a subtle but important investing concept when one looks over the longer term horizon and tries to protect wealth. Because I believe the deflationary forces in the economy are strong, I believe it is possible that U.S. Dollars can be significantly devalued and yet gain in value relative to real estate and general stocks. But holders of any of these asset classes I believe will lose wealth in Gold terms.

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