Gold ended slightly lower Wednesday, marking the fifth consecutive day the yellow metal has declined. Again cited as the catalyst for the loses was a rallying US dollar. Silver and platinum also fell, as did crude oil which plunged 2.6 percent. US stocks followed along, with the three major indexes tumbling between 1.2 percent and 2.7 percent.

New York precious metals figures follow:

• Silver for December delivery fell 30 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $16.240 an ounce. It ranged from $16.155 to $16.77.

• Gold for December delivery declined $4.90, or 0.5 percent, to $1,030.50 an ounce. The yellow metal ranged from $1,042.60 to $1,027.10, which is the lowest price since Oct. 6.

• January platinum ended down $12.10, or 0.9 percent, to $1,306.90 an ounce.

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Read the rest of Gold Continues Decline for Day Five, Stocks Tumble (2,367 words)

New York gold futures ended lower Tuesday for the fourth straight day as the US dollar advanced on news of a decline in consumer confidence. Silver was hit exceptionally hard for the second straight day, falling more than 3 percent. Platinum declined as well. In other markets, crude oil finished 1 percent higher and US stocks ended mixed.

New York precious metals figures follow:

• Silver for December delivery plummeted 55.5 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $16.540 an ounce. It ranged from $17.250 to $16.500.

• Gold for December delivery declined $7.40, or 0.7 percent, to $1,035.40 an ounce. The yellow metal ranged from $1,044.30 to $1,032.90, which was the lowest level since Oct. 6.

• January platinum fell $26.80, or 2.0 percent, to $1,319.00 an ounce.

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Read the rest of Gold Drops for Fourth Day, Silver Plunges, Stocks Mixed (2,493 words)

Bullion Vault

A short-term view of gold, the Dollar and energy markets…

The US DOLLAR isn’t going straight down in a line, according to Steve Palmer, president and CEO of AlphaNorth Asset Management.

Forming an investment team in 1998 with Joey Javier, they took three key assets – their excellent track record, experience and belief that exploiting inefficiencies in the Canadian small-cap universe would produce superior long-term equity returns – to launch the fund in 2007.

Now “I’m expecting the US Dollar to rally in the short term and gold to sell off,” Steve tells the Gold Report in this interview…

The Gold Report: Since the last time we spoke, in February, your performance in your fund year-to-date is up, I believe, 138%. Can you tell us what sectors you focused your fund on during this year to produce that type of return?

Steve Palmer: Well, there’s no particular sector focus. The fund is very diversified. It’s about half resource and half technology, special situations and biotech. But we did have a few big winners that really helped. 

TGR: Your fund, as well as the market, has had pretty amazing returns this year. In your August monthly commentary you said you’re getting cautious on equities, given the strong rally. What are you feeling now that we’re in late October? Is there a pullback, or will we continue to move forward?

Steve Palmer: I don’t think the market can go that much higher in the short term. I think it needs to consolidate and pull back a little bit, so we have added some short positions in anticipation of this.

TGR: Many people have said they’re expecting a pullback in the markets, but it never seems to happen. In what timeframe are you expecting this to occur?

Steve Palmer: The next month or two. It’s hard to get the timing perfect, but I think maybe a short-term pullback. Not a major correction or anything, but just a breather and then the markets could likely be strong into year end.

Read more….

Precious metals enjoyed modest gains on the week as the US dollar was the predominating driver of where prices went. A weaker greenback on Friday combined with lower crude oil prices helped gold slide slightly from earlier week highs. Oil did jump nearly 3.5 percent this week while gasoline prices at the pump were almost 13 cents higher than last Saturday.

In other markets, US stocks declined for the first week in three while European indexes finished mixed with the London FTSE advancing.

In London bullion weekly figures, gold climbed 1.4 percent, silver rose 2.0 percent and platinum jumped 2.4 percent. Friday precious metals prices follow:

London silver closed to $17.65 an ounce, rising 34 cents from last Friday’s close. New York December silver futures ended at $17.723 for a 30.3 cent weekly increase.

London gold was fixed at $1,061.75 an ounce for a $14.25 gain on the week. New York gold for December delivery finished at $1,056.40 for a weekly gain of $5.70.

London platinum ended at $1,372.00 an ounce, advancing $32.00 since last Friday’s close. New York platinum for January delivery ended at $1,369.50 for a $21.00 weekly rise.

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Read the rest of Bullion & Business Weekend Report – Oct. 24 (1,447 words)

A Turkey for Turkey, The UK Lays an Economic Egg, and Russia Sells…Gold?!

Good Day,

Gold prices continued to remain ‘in the zone’ (the $1040-$1070 zone, that is) overnight, with little in the way of fresh market-impactful news making their way into the media stream. The US dollar remained at or very near the 1.50 pivotal level against the euro, but climbed away from the 75-mark on the trade-weighted index. Oil prices hovered just above $81.25 per barrel, while a lackluster session in the Nikkei ended with tiny gains.

New York spot metals dealings opened on a mixed note this morning, as pre-weekend book-squaring and dollar gains made for a bit more than the recently witnessed –and practically daily-one-way fund buying spree. Gold started the Friday session at $1060.00 exactly, basis spot bid, a gain of $0.20 per ounce, as against a tick at the 75.29 level by the dollar on the index. Today’s ‘to watch’ agenda contains US existing home sales data, and a Bernanke speech in Boston. Also keep an eye on closing levels – this is now the fourth week of potential gains before the tally is over.

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Read the rest of Gold, Silver, Metal Prices: Commentary (10/23/2009) (2,143 words)

Gold declined nearly $6 Thursday, breaking away from a four-day winning streak as the US dollar gained ground. Silver and platinum also fell, as did crude oil which retreated from a one-year high. US stocks rallied on positive news from several corporate earnings reports.

New York precious metals figures follow:

• Silver for December delivery fell 28 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $17.545 an ounce. It ranged from $17.365 to $17.790.

• Gold for December delivery declined $5.90, or 0.6 percent, to $1,058.60 an ounce. The yellow metal ranged from $1,052 to $1,062.40.

• January platinum edged lower by $4.50, or 0.3 percent, to $1,369.90 an ounce.

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Read the rest of Gold, Commodities Decline; Stocks Rally (468 words)

After gold prices crossed above the psychological level of $1000, the target price for gold became a very popular topic on the markets. Jim Rogers predicts gold prices to go even to $2000. Some of latest analysis from Adam Hewison about gold:

In the first video Adam provides some mid and long term analysis for the US dollar, S&P 500 and gold.

Read more »

The Daily Reckoning

The US dollar is a sort of monetary brand. And like any other brand, it can fall out of favor. Even iconic brands can rapidly lose their “must-have” caché. Sometimes, a brand can disappear entirely, as did Pan American Airways or “Members Only” jackets. But there is always something else waiting to take its place. So it is with the US dollar, a brand making lows in the financial markets.

The dollar has been the “Coca-Cola of monetary brands,” says James Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. But even the best of brands can be lousy investments. Grant uses the analogy of The New York Times. It was the greatest name in newspapers. In 2002, the stock sold for $53 per share – an all-time high, as it turned out. Today, the “Gray Lady” fetches only $8 per share.

“What happened?” Grant asked. The World Wide Web happened, he says. “The Times has hundreds of reporters, but this is a story they seem to have missed.” As if the lowly stock price was not evidence enough of its decline, the NY Times got another reminder when it borrowed $225 million against it headquarters building. The cost of such borrowing, Grant reports, was 14%. The august Times today borrows at rates no better than a working-class stiff at a pawnshop. The US Treasury should take note. The government seems as intent on creating dollars as prolifically as bunnies create other bunnies.

Here we get to John Paulson, a presenter at the Grant’s Fall Investment Conference and undoubtedly the richest man in the room. Portfolio magazine dubbed him “The Man Who Made Too Much” after he made $3.7 billion by betting against mortgage-backed securities (MBS). He is one of the greatest hedge fund managers ever.

Gold is his favorite today. As to why, Paulson presented a simple, but compelling case. First, the monetary base has exploded in a way we’ve never seen before. The monetary base is essentially the Federal Reserve Bank’s currency and reserves. The Fed, by buying up securities in this crisis, has pumped a lot of money into the economy.

You’ve probably seen this chart, or some variation of it. Still, there haven’t been noticeable signs of inflation as a result of that big spike – not yet.

As Paulson explained, that’s because this base money has not yet been lent out and multiplied throughout the economy. Yet the monetary base and money supply are highly correlated, “almost 1-to-1 between the two,” Paulson said.

That means that as the monetary base expands, the money supply surely follows, though there is a lag. (Money supply is a broader measure of money than just the monetary base, as it includes personal deposits and more. The monetary base is like a kind of monetary yeast. It makes money supply rise.)

If money supply grows faster than the economy, that will create inflation, says Paulson. As it is impossible for the economy to grow anywhere near that vertical spike in the monetary base, Paulson contends inflation is coming.

The US is not alone in its money-printing exercise. The supply of most currencies is expanding rapidly – even the normally tame Swiss franc. In the race of paper currencies, they are all dogs. Hence Paulson’s interest in gold, which no government can make on a whim.

Therefore, in the content of the exploding monetary base, gold seems relatively cheap. In other words, as the money supply rises, so does the price of gold, eventually. As a result, says Paulson, “gold has been a perfect hedge against inflation.”

There is some slippage over time. The gold price can change faster or slower than the money supply. But when the market gets worried about inflation, the gold price usually changes much faster – as happened in the 1970s. In 1973 – to pick a typical year – inflation was 9% and gold rose 67%. That was a pattern common in the 1970s.

The potential for inflation this time around is greater than it was in the 1970s, given that the growth in the monetary base is so much greater than it was in the 1970s. Gold could do much better this time around, reaching “$3,000 or $4,000 or $5,000 per ounce” as Paulson said.

I keep thinking how future historians will look back at the present day and see clearly how this unfolded. They will see the litany of news items that pointed to the dollar losing its top perch: China and Brazil settling up trade in their own currencies. The Russians and others openly calling for a new monetary standard. Even mainstream outlets are discussing alternatives to a dollar-based standard, a province once solely occupied by cranks and gold bugs. Not a week goes by without these kinds of stories.

As for a replacement waiting in the wings, Grant offers up gold. Indeed, a kind of “de facto gold standard” seems to be taking shape. The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed security in the world, is now the sixth largest holder of the metal in the world. Anybody with a brokerage account can easily buy gold today through the trust, which trades on the NYSE under the ticker GLD.

It’s still early. Most people still own no or very little gold. As it becomes clearer what’s happening, they will buy more gold, especially as it is now easy to do so.

The gold supply, too, is limited against the vast pool of dollars. As Paulson points out, global money supply is 72 times the value of gold. I’m betting that gap will narrow. It only has to narrow a smidgen and the gold price flies.

As Grant eloquently put it: “Gold is a speculation. But it is a speculation on a certainty: the debasement of the currency.” Gold stocks, too, are a speculation. But they are a speculation on an inevitably higher gold price.

Regards,

Chris Mayer,
for The Daily Reckoning

Brand Disloyalty originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning. The Daily Reckoning, a FREE daily e-letter, offers a “uniquely refreshing” perspective on the global economy, investing, and today’s markets.

More articles from The Daily Reckoning….

Gold ended higher Wednesday and for the fourth straight day as a decline in the US dollar propped precious metals higher — silver and platinum advanced as well. In other markets, crude oil surged above $81 a barrel to a one-year high while US stocks retreated from their own earlier one-year highs.

New York precious metals figures follow:

• Silver for December delivery rose 26.7 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $17.825 an ounce. It ranged from $17.300 to $17.835.

• Gold for December delivery climbed $5.90, or 0.6 percent, to $1,064.50 an ounce. The yellow metal ranged from $1,048.10 to $1,065.70.

• January platinum advanced $18.10, or 1.3 percent, to $1,374.40 an ounce.

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Read the rest of Gold, Silver Rise; Stocks Fall (1,839 words)

New York gold futures climbed Tuesday, although the yellow metal lost a portion of earlier gains following a lifted US dollar which also pulled down oil prices for the first time in nine days. Silver, platinum and US stocks edged slightly lower.

New York precious metals figures follow:

• Silver for December delivery fell 6.7 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $17.558 an ounce. It ranged from $17.420 to $17.955.

• Gold for December delivery rose 50 cents to $1,058.60 an ounce. The yellow metal ranged from $1,052.60 to $1,069.

• January platinum declined $7.90, or 0.6 percent, to $1,356.30 an ounce.

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Read the rest of Gold Rises Despite Higher Dollar, Stocks Retreat (2,238 words)