GDP: Great Day to Play

Good Day,

Friday’s market sessions in precious metals started off on a tamer note, following the best gains in gold in three weeks. Explanations follow. The recapture of the $1045 area is noteworthy, although analysts we polled during the wee hours overseas are trying to define the move as everything from a ‘one-hit wonder’ to the ‘re-ignition of what we saw during most of October.’

The Bloomberg weekly survey foresees weaker gold prices come next week - not by a large margin (57% bearish)- but still focusing on a potential comeback by the US currency, the early signs of which became visible this past Monday. Demand for the yellow metal once again slipped away in India, following signs of life during the earlier part of the week when values came close to $1025 per ounce. The country recorded its sixth straight month of declining gold imports, despite a decent gain during September – in anticipation of festival-related sales.

New York spot dealings opened with a $2.60 loss in gold bullion, which was quoted at $1043.20 bid, as against a euro-dollar seen at $1.4798 and the USD index steady-to-higher, at 76.05, with little in the way of fresh news thus far this morning. Oil prices gave back about 50 cents of their whopper-sized Thursday gains, slipping to $79.32 per barrel. Risk traders took a latte break this morning, and this gave the dollar a moment to try to re-group.

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Read the rest of Gold, Silver, Metal Prices: Commentary – 10/30/2009 (2,324 words)

IRVINE, Calif. – Spectrum Numismatics International, Inc., one of the world’s largest rare coin and currency dealers, announced today that it has hired Richard Melamed as their Senior Numismatist.

"Richard Melamed is one of the most respected numismatists in the industry.  During his 36-year career, Melamed has done everything from running his own coin business to grading for Professional Coin Grading Service, to working for the largest names in numismatics.  His commitment to excellence will contribute to Spectrum’s continued growth as an internationally recognized pre-eminent rare coin and currency dealer," said Andrew Glassman, President of Spectrum.

"I am excited to take on this new challenge and add to Spectrum’s expansion," commented Melamed.  "

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Read the rest of Spectrum Numismatics International, Inc. Names New Senior Numismatist (80 words)

(Santa Ana, California) – Information provided to Northern California law enforcement authorities by Professional Coin Grading Service led to the arrest of a suspect who is now under investigation in connection with the sales of fraudulently altered Morgan dollars in tampered PCGS holders for nearly $300,000.

“Genuine, common date Morgan dollars were split into two pieces (front and back along the rim), then adhered to each other in combinations to create the illusion of rare date and mintmarks.  The coins then were placed in tampered PCGS holders to give the coin credibility in the marketplace and to hide the alterations,” said Stephen Mayer, Chief Operating Officer of Collectors Universe, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLCT), parent company of Professional Coin Grading Service.

Among the fraudulent alterations were “1883-S,” “1884-S” and “1903-S” that were deceitfully labeled as PCGS MS65, MS63 and MS64, respectively.

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Read the rest of PCGS Helps Police Nab Counterfeits Suspect (335 words)

Fun(d) and Games

Good Day,

Dollar weakness was manifest once gain as the new trading week got underway, with the US currency recording a fresh 14-month low against the euro overnight. The greenback also slipped on the trade-weighted index, losing 0.13 to 75.31 at last check. This morning’s macroeconomic news reveals a mixed bag of confidence, one that is dependent on geography.

German consumer sentiment slipped for the first time in more than a year, as locals worry about continuing job losses. Over in the UK, in the midst of a rather nasty economic picture, business confidence levels rose to an 18-month high based on the latest survey.

New York spot bullion trading got off to a start slightly in the negative column for gold. The yellow metal fell $1.40 at the start of the session, quoted at $1053.40 an ounce, as against the aforementioned drop in the dollar index, and its small decline consisted of  about an 80-cent gain on dollar weakness-induced gain versus about $2.20 worth of declines on market-based selling. Thus, the net starting price outcome on the day.

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Read the rest of Gold, Silver, Metal Prices: Commentary – 10/26/2009 (1,471 words)

A Turkey for Turkey, The UK Lays an Economic Egg, and Russia Sells…Gold?!

Good Day,

Gold prices continued to remain ‘in the zone’ (the $1040-$1070 zone, that is) overnight, with little in the way of fresh market-impactful news making their way into the media stream. The US dollar remained at or very near the 1.50 pivotal level against the euro, but climbed away from the 75-mark on the trade-weighted index. Oil prices hovered just above $81.25 per barrel, while a lackluster session in the Nikkei ended with tiny gains.

New York spot metals dealings opened on a mixed note this morning, as pre-weekend book-squaring and dollar gains made for a bit more than the recently witnessed –and practically daily-one-way fund buying spree. Gold started the Friday session at $1060.00 exactly, basis spot bid, a gain of $0.20 per ounce, as against a tick at the 75.29 level by the dollar on the index. Today’s ‘to watch’ agenda contains US existing home sales data, and a Bernanke speech in Boston. Also keep an eye on closing levels – this is now the fourth week of potential gains before the tally is over.

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Read the rest of Gold, Silver, Metal Prices: Commentary (10/23/2009) (2,143 words)

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) — Gold’s rally to a record means
prices are still 53 percent below the 1980 inflation-adjusted
peak.

While gold rose 19 percent this year to $1,072 an ounce on
Oct. 14, consumer prices almost tripled in the past three
decades, eroding the metal’s value. Bullion hasn’t kept pace
with the cost of bread, fuel or medical care. In 1980, gold hit
a then-record $873 an ounce. In today’s dollars, that would be
$2,287, according to the U.S. Labor Department’s inflation
calculator.

Record government debt and interest rates close to zero
percent are pushing gold higher for a ninth straight year, and
options show investors expect the rally to continue. When prices
reached all-time highs, the contract with the most open interest
was the December call to buy the metal at $1,200. The contract
to purchase at $1,500 an ounce was the third biggest.

“Gold is not at any peak,” said Martin Murenbeeld, the
chief economist at Toronto-based DundeeWealth Inc., which
manages $58.5 billion in mutual funds and brokerage accounts.
“The world’s money supply has increased and gold hasn’t kept
pace,” he said. “We’re now in a period where gold is catching
up.”

The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the currency against
those of six major trading partners, fell on Oct. 15 to the
lowest level in 14 months, and has dropped about 7 percent this
year. President Barack Obama has increased the nation’s
marketable debt 22 percent to $7.01 trillion to revive growth.

Preserving Value

Gold bulls say today’s record borrowing and low interest
rates mean the government will have to accept faster inflation
as the economy recovers. Investors buy bullion to preserve value
during times of turmoil and economic stress.

Financial institutions worldwide have reported credit
losses and writedowns of about $1.62 trillion since the start of
2007, when the credit crisis began. Group of 20 governments have
pledged about $11.9 trillion to ease credit and revive economic
growth, according to the International Monetary Fund.

“Gold is the hedge against currency devaluation,” John
Brynjolfsson, of hedge fund Armored Wolf LLC, said in a
Bloomberg Television interview from Aliso Viejo, California, on
Oct. 7. He predicted bullion will top $2,000.

Banks have raised their gold estimates. On Oct. 9, JPMorgan
Chase & Co. said the metal will average $1,006 an ounce next
year, compared with an earlier projection of $950. Deutsche Bank
AG forecast an average of $1,150, up 32 percent from its
estimate in July. Barclays Capital said Oct. 12 that “prospects
for a run at $1,500 should not be underestimated” next year.

Understated CPI

Gold would need to rise more than sixfold to top the 1980
record, using a more accurate inflation-adjustment, said John
Williams, an economist and the editor of Berkeley, California-
based Shadowstats.com. He said the government has understated
the cost of living over the past two decades with adjustments in
the way it measures the basket of goods and services monitored
by the U.S. consumer price index, or CPI.

Gold futures for December delivery closed Oct. 16 at
$1,051.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex
division, gaining for a third straight week.

“If the methodologies of measuring inflation in 1980 had
been kept intact, gold would have to hit $7,150 to be the
equivalent of the 1980 record,” Williams said.

The cost of living in the U.S. rose 0.2 percent last month,
the Labor Department said on Oct. 16. Compared with a year
earlier, consumer prices fell 1.3 percent. The CPI will drop 0.5
percent this year, before rising 1.9 percent in 2010, reflected
by the median estimates of 61 economists in a Bloomberg survey.
Annual increases averaged 2.8 percent a year in the past decade.

Purchasing-Power Adjustment

In March 1980, inflation surged to a 14.8 percent annual
rate, two months after gold capped a four-year rally. Adjusted
for the decline in the dollar’s purchasing power since then,
gold’s Oct. 14 record of $1,072 represents the equivalent of
$409 in 1980 dollars, the Labor Department calculator shows.

Since January 1980, the average price of a pound of white
bread has risen almost threefold, from about 50 cents to $1.38
in August, and medical care has surged more than fivefold, Labor
Department figures show. Gasoline and electricity prices have
more than doubled.

Today, the gap between gold’s spot price and its CPI-
adjusted equivalent is the widest ever.

Gold hasn’t been as effective a hedge against inflation as
oil since the 1980s, said Matt Zeman, of LaSalle Futures Group
LLC in Chicago.

Oil Beats Gold

Crude passed its 1981 inflation-adjusted record two years
ago. The cost of imported oil averaged $39 a barrel in February
1981, after Iran cut exports, according to the Energy
Department. That’s $89 in 2007 dollars, the Labor Department
calculator shows. Oil reached a record $147.27 on July 11, 2008,
and closed at $78.53 on Oct. 16 in New York trading.

“If you bought gold in the 1980s, you’re still losing
money today,” said Zeman, a metals trader. Gold prices in New
York languished for two decades after declining from the 1980
record, dropping to a 20-year low of $253.20 on July 20, 1999.

While bulls say gold is cheap, the inflation-adjusted price
is 15 percent above its 30-year average, Bloomberg data show.

The Federal Reserve may limit gains by raising interest
rates before inflation balloons, analysts said. Fed Chairman Ben
S. Bernanke said on Oct. 8 that policy makers will need to raise
interest rates “at some point” to control inflation.

‘Prepared to Tighten’

“When the economic outlook has improved sufficiently, we
will be prepared to tighten,” Bernanke said in remarks prepared
for an Oct. 8 conference in Washington.

Fed moves to cool inflation and the government’s revenue
needs will stop gold, according to Jon Nadler, a senior analyst
for Montreal metals dealer and refiner Kitco Inc.

“These wild calls for several-thousand-dollar gold are
typical of times when gold goes into uncharted territory,”
Nadler said. “The Fed will pull the interest-rate trigger and
the Obama administration will, in addition, pull the tax-hike
trigger before we get into any serious inflation. Once the man
on the street gets in, the gold rally is likely over.”

Gold held in exchange-traded funds climbed to records this
month at Zuercher Kantonalbank and ETF Securities Ltd. Holdings
in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed
by bullion, are up 42 percent this year. Hedge funds and other
large speculators hold their most-bullish position ever in gold
futures. So-called net-long positions, or bets prices will rise,
increased by 6 percent to 253,955 contracts in the week ended
Oct. 13, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Gold Producers

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold & Silver Index jumped
43 percent this year, as Phoenix-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper &
Gold Inc. tripled. Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s
largest producer, fell 10 percent. Barrick said Sept. 8 it will
record $5.6 billion in third-quarter costs to eliminate fixed-
price contracts as the company bets gold’s value will climb.

At Jersey, Channel Islands-based GoldMoney.com, which held
$759 million of gold and silver for investors as of Sept. 30,
founder James Turk said bullion can climb eightfold based on the
historical relationship between the metal and the Dow Jones
Industrial Average. The Dow is up 10-fold since January 1980.

Gold and the Dow, which has gained 14 percent this year to
9,995.91, were at about the same level during the Great
Depression and the early 1980s, he said. On Jan. 21, 1980, as
gold futures surged to $873, the Dow slipped to 946.25.

“The dollar is constantly being debased and inflated,”
Turk said. “By 2013, gold is going to be at $8,000 and the Dow
will be at 8,000.”

Gold-Dollar Link

Deutsche Bank said early this month that the dollar will
fall to $1.60 per euro next year, a drop of 7.3 percent from
last week, because of “rising fiscal deficits and loose
monetary policy.”

Gold has moved in the opposite direction of the dollar over
most of the past decade. The metal’s correlation coefficient to
the U.S. Dollar Index is minus 0.8539, Bloomberg data show. A
correlation of minus 1 indicates two assets move inversely to
each other, while a 1 would show they move in tandem. A reading
of zero shows no correlation.

Philip Gotthelf, the president of Equidex Brokerage Group
Inc. in Closter, New Jersey, says he expects gold to trade at
$1,250 by year-end.

“Gold has been pushing higher because it’s no longer just
a hedge against commodity inflation, it’s also a hedge against a
change in world-monetary standards.”

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A Bubble in Bubbles Not So Tiny

Good Day,

Gold prices started the new week off in Asia overnight by reversing Friday’s slim gains and re-testing the $1050 level as a strengthening US dollar was once again part of the background picture. More than 13.5 tonnes of gold flowed out of the combined balances of gold ETFs on Friday. During a week when the metal inked new records into the books?

The overnight losses in gold did not amount to more than $5 however, and the yellow metal was able to retake the mid-$1050s prior to the start of Monday’s NY session. The European common currency also fell in the early hours, for a second day, due to concerns that Old World financial policy makers will discuss the currency’s recent strength and what to do about it, when they meet later today.

New York spot precious metals dealings opened with a light step into the red, with gold down by $0.10 per ounce at $1052.70 an ounce. This, as against a fresh small dollar decline (except against the yen) on the trade-weighted index (last seen at 75.51) and very small losses in crude oil (last quoted at $78.46 per barrel). Post-Dhanteras activity in India amounted to…not very much.

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Read the rest of Gold, Silver, Metal Prices: Commentary (10/19/2009) (1,829 words)

12:04p ET Sunday, October 18, 2009

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Trace Mayer, proprietor of RunToGold.com, was interviewed for six minutes October 9 by Michael Hainsworth on Business News Network in Canada and discussed at length the central bank gold price suppression scheme, which Mayer said was characterized by the “Greenspan call,” which now is being offset by the “Beijing put.” Mayer did an excellent job in getting the purposes of the scheme across in a brief time, just as Hainsworth’s questions signified that he understood the gold issue thoroughly. You’ll probably never see anything like this exchange on U.S. television, so U.S. citizens will just have to be thankful that there’s a free press next door. You can watch the BNN interview with Mayer at the BNN archive here:

http://watch.bnn.ca/the-close/october-2009/the-close-october-9-2009/#cli…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

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Rich Gold Now Sold (By, And To, The Rich)

Good Day,

A second day of falling prices in gold was once again, brought to you courtesy of a strengthening dollar. Initial support at $1048 was once again breached early this morning, precipitated by a gain of 0.35 in the USD on the index (now at 75.77).

Gold spot prices have touched a low of $1042.20 in the minutes following the NY market’s opening. The emergence of profit-taking is becoming a bit more visible, although Thursday’s afternoon settlement at $1050 appeared to manifest continuing hardiness among the longs.

The same can be said about the rebound to $1048 seen within the first hour of Friday’s market action. The overriding component in this morning’s near $6 drop was attributable to dollar strength, as seen on our newly-launched index, below.

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Read the rest of Gold, Silver, Metal Prices: Commentary (10/16/2009) (1,700 words)

Zacks.com submits:

Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX), the largest gold mining company in the world, has entered into an agreement with Xstrata Copper Chile S.A., a wholly owned subsidiary of Xstrata Plc (XSRAF.PK), to acquire Xstrata’s 70% interest in the El Morro project for $465 million in cash. Another Canadian miner, New Gold Inc. (NGD) owns the remaining 30% interest in El Morro.

The El Morro gold project is located in the Atacama Region in Chile. The project has total measured and indicated resources of about 8.3 million ounces of gold and about 6.3 billion pounds of copper. The acquisition will add another large, high quality gold-copper resource to Barrick’s portfolio.

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