By Frank Holmes, GoldSeek

The biggest emerging economies have ambitious plans that require a greater share of the world’s limited commodities. This trend is spurring profound and permanent disruptions in how these resources are allocated now and in the future. For investors, these disruptions present opportunities.

Simply put, an investment in natural resources is a vote of confidence in global economic growth.

Rapid urbanization and industrialization, better infrastructure and growing consumption in emerging markets are among the key themes in the global growth story. They are also key drivers in the rising demand for oil, steel, copper, cement and other resources.

Here are just a few of the many available data points to help gauge the scale of opportunity:

• Just over half of the world’s people now live in cities – that figure is likely to rise to 70 percent over the next four decades. The urban population in emerging nations has expanded by an average of 3 million per week for the past 20 years.

• India has embarked on a $500 billion plan to expand and upgrade its highways, airports and other transportation assets by 2012.

• More than 13 million cars and light trucks were sold in China in 2009, transforming a land once dominated by bicycles into the largest auto market in the world. Forecasts for 2010 call for vehicle sales to increase by as much as 10 percent.

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By Gary Dorsch, GoldSeek

Although the US remains the world’s #1 economy it’s increasingly feeling the heat of a Chinese dragon, breathing down its neck. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the US-economy was eight-times larger thanChina’s – a decade later the figure was down to four-times. China’s $4.9-trillion economy has already passed Germany’s to become the world’s third largest, and is on course to overtake #2 Japan this year.

China has emerged to become the world’s largest exporter, shipping $1.2-trillion of goods abroad last year, and overtaking Germany, which held the title of world’s biggest exporter since 2002.  Factories employing low-paid workers to assemble iPods, computers, shoes, and toys are leading the boom. China has also passed the US as the world’s largest auto market and producer. Two decades ago, a car industry barely existed in China.Steel output for 2009 is estimated at 565-million tons, up 13% year on year. Excluding China, global steel output fell 23% from the previous year.

While American and European banks were under siege from the global financial crisis, Chinese banks emerged from the turmoil relatively unscathed. Chinese banks were in sound shape, allowing the government’s 4-trillion yuan stimulus plans to be very effective. Because Chinese banks weren’t overleveraged, they were able to move quickly to inject liquidity into the economy, lending an unprecedented 9.6-trillion yuan ($1.4-trillion) last year, equaling about 30% of the economy’s annual output.

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By Frank Holmes, GoldSeek

We’ve updated our popular Periodic Table of Commodity Returns, and the headline news should come as no surprise – 2009 was a complete turnaround for the sector’s 2008 performance.

Commodities (as measured by the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index) rose 24 percent in 2009, the largest single-year increase since the early 1970s.

In 2008, only one of the 14 commodities in the table finished positive – gold, up a scant 5.8 percent – while five finished with losses exceeding 50 percent, led by lead at a negative 63.5 percent.

Last year, only three of the 14 ended up underwater for the year, with coal coming in at rock bottom at minus 13 percent. Four of the industrial metals – copper, lead, zinc and palladium – each rose more than 100 percent in 2009.

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The Sovereign Society submits:

Investors like myself tend to get a little romantic about gold.

After all, we’re in the midst of the greatest bull market in history since 2001. It’s hard not to love gold. Sure, it pays you squat in income. But the dollar also pays you nothing and even if it did, when adjusted for its long-term decline vis-à-vis gold and hard currencies— what are you left with?

The dollar is dead money.

It also shares this role with the other drunks at the currency bar; only on a relative scale, the EUR and the rest are a bit better.

Still, since 2005 all currencies are declining against gold…

Since I expect interest rate volatility to emerge in 2010, I also expect a more subdued environment for gold and silver. Higher rates, if only temporary, will hurt gold and silver. Evidence of this price action already began in mid-December.

But as we approach the second half of the year bonds will rally and so will most commodities, including the metals. I just think it’ll be a little bumpy over the first half.

By 2015, give or take a year or two, I think gold and silver will peak. By that time, prices should be about $2,500 or more for gold and $75 an ounce or more for silver. Sound outlandish? Eight years ago I forecasted similar projections at numerous international seminars; people don’t look at me like I’m crazy anymore.

Unfortunately, the last super-cycle for gold and silver will also coincide with a major conflict, crises or crash across world markets, sparking the next global recession or worse. That will be the time to sell gold and silver. But it’s still not too late to buy gold or silver at these prices.

In general, my favorite commodities in 2010 include the grains, coffee, cocoa, soybean and palm oil. I also like gold and silver but believe 2010 will be a moderate year for the metals, meaning maybe a 10% to 15% gain. I’m neutral-to-bearish on crude oil but like natural gas.

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South Africa needed to apply its mind to solving the electricity price issue to avoid widespread knock-on effects that would seriously stunt economic growth and spark a new round of wage demands, Harmony Gold CEO Graham Briggs said on Friday.

The head of South Africa’s third-largest gold-mining company said that increasing the electricity tariffs by 45% a year over three years would cause prices of other commodities to be increased across a broad front and spur a new round of wage demands.

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JSE-listed Sentula Mining has advised its shareholders that the contemplated R686-million sale of its 49,9% interest in the Koornfontein coal mine, in Mpumalanga, would no longer take place.

In a statement released on Friday, Sentula reported that notwithstanding the successful conclusion of the due diligence investigation carried out by the potential purchases, the company has been notified that the potential purchaser, a consortium, comprising the Africa Commodities Group and the Bravura Group, would not be able to conclude the sale within the agreed time period.

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Chris Vermeulen submits:

Commodities and stocks almost look ready for a rally or at least a relief bounce. The market is down over 5% and the normal pullback this year has been 4%. Using technical analysis and inter-market analysis, we can see that the market is reaching extreme lows and this usually means we are only a couple days away from a rally.

I work with several market technicians as we all analyze the market a different way and share our work with each other to gain maximum insight on the broad market moves. We analyze momentum cycles, magnetic cycles, volatility levels, support & resistance levels, volume analysis and inter-market analysis.

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While financial stocks will take a back seat

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Why a more gradual recovery would be better for everyone but could be boring for commodities

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Commentary from geologist Brent Cook, editor of Exploration Insights newsletter, who is a little more than disturbed by reports of heavy speculation in metals in China, not by funds, but by the general populace. Is a commodities bubble being signalled?

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