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Sunday, August 14, 2016

History Lesson: September Is Best Month for Gold



August 31, 2009 by · Leave a Comment 

By Frank Holmes, GoldSeek

We’re heading into September next week, so it’s a good time to revisit the historic seasonality of gold and gold stocks.

Over the past four decades, September has been the best time for gold in terms of its month-over-month price appreciation. You can see this on the chart below – in a typical year, the price of gold in September rises 2.5 percent above its August price.

The gold price has risen in 16 of the 20 Septembers since 1989, by far the best success ratio of any month of the year.

What accounts for this predictable trend?

September kicks off several of the planet’s most potent gold-demand drivers:

  • The post-monsoon wedding season in India and Diwali, one of the country’s most important festivals;
  • Restocking by jewelry makers in advance of the Christmas shopping season in the United States;
  • The holy month of Ramadan in the Muslim world, whose end in late September is marked by a period of celebration and gift-giving;
  • And in China, the week-long National Day celebration starting October 1 and the run-up to the Chinese New Year in early 2010.

This could be a challenging September in India, the world’s largest gold consumer. The economic slowdown and gold prices near record highs drove jewelry demand down 31 percent in the second quarter compared to the same period in 2008.

On the other hand, the World Gold Council says India’s bank deposits saw 22 percent year-over-year growth in the second quarter of 2009, so cash is available to be spent if the rupee price for gold weakens even slightly. The WGC also expects the wedding and Diwali season to “underpin a seasonal improvement over the remainder of 2009.”

China, the world’s #2 gold market, actually saw a year-over-year gold demand increase of 6 percent in the latest quarter, with buyers favoring 24-carat gold jewelry for its quality and as a store of value. The WGC says that trend toward the purer form of gold should continue, though the third quarter is usually the low season for this segment of the market.

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