Commodities at Critical Juncture

Pressure is building for Gold. The chart shows a pattern of higher lows and a horizontal resistance line just below the $1,000 level, thus forming a triangle pattern. The normal market response would be a breakout to the upside because the bulls are getting more and more eager to step in (higher lows).

The 17 w. MA together with the blue should act as a decent support and offer Gold the time to gather enough strength for the final push above the magenta neckline. As mentioned in an earlier update this reversed H/S pattern triggers a price target for Gold at $1,300.

For now the outlook remains fairly positive, however there are some negative warning signs showing up in the chart: negative divergence in the RSI and the MACD which hints at an upcoming change in the trend. The change in trend signal will become stronger if the RSI and STO both fall below the 50 level with Gold falling below the 17 w. MA and the blue support line.

If the negative outlook comes to pass a fall towards the $700 is very likely.

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