DEFLATION NEVER HAD A CHANCE

By Toby Connor, Gold Scents Lately we’ve been hearing a lot of talk about Kondratieff cycles, Elliot Wave super cycle, end of the world, deflation, deflation, deflation. What the deflationists fail to acknowledge is that in a purely fiat monetary system deflation is a choice not an inevitability. To put it in simple terms, if a [...]

TEST THE HIGHS?

By Toby Connor, Gold Scents I have been expecting the daily cycle to bottom on last Friday’s revision to GDP or possibly with Friday’s jobs report. Yesterdays big rally more than likely confirmed the daily cycle low did come last Friday. Now we have a test coming. If the market can break above the August [...]

CAN THE MARKETS CRASH?

By Toby Connor, Gold Scents In a word, not a chance in hell. Folks we’ve had three real crashes in the last 100 years. The odds of a 4th crash following right on the heels of the 3rd is minuscule. In the fall of `08 the financial system needed to roll over 700 billion in [...]

COILS AND THROWBACKS

By Toby Connor, Gold Scents We have a potential coil forming on the gold chart. As I’ve mentioned before about 70% of the time the initial thrust out of a coil tends to be a false move soon followed by a more powerful and durable move in the opposite direction. If that holds true then [...]

S&P 950…NOT SO FAST

By Toby Connor, Gold Scents The better than expected GDP numbers threw a slight monkey wrench in the trading plan (for you traders out there). I was expecting a gap down open that would break through the 1040 pivot. The plan was to buy into that gap with a stop under the morning intraday low. [...]

WHY THE DOLLAR IS KEY

By Toby Connor, Gold Scents Stocks:The move to a lower low on Friday puts the odds squarely in the “one more leg down” camp. I’ve noticed a couple of patterns emerging in the stock market. The first one is the tendency for a market cycle to bottom on an anticipated news event. The last two [...]

CLOSE ENOUGH?

By Toby Connor, Gold Scents Gold is now due for a corrective move. Its rallied 15 out of the last 17 days and is now moving into the timing band for a cycle low. My best guess was that gold might make it to around $1240 before that corrective move began. Today was pretty close. [...]

WAITING ON OIL AND THE DOLLAR

By Toby Connor, Gold Scents A while back (I can’t remember when, and I’m too lazy to find and link to it) I mentioned that the daily cycle in oil runs about 50-70 days. The energy sector is one thing weighing on the stock market right now. Oil needs to turn the corner and join [...]

TOO LATE TO CHASE

By Toby Connor, Gold Scents Today will mark the 15th day of the current daily cycle in gold. Gold has been up 13 out of the last 15 days. It’s getting overbought. Usually the daily cycle runs about 20 -25 days. At this point it is probably too late to chase the move.   There are [...]

S&P, SILVER & THE DOLLAR

By Toby Connor, Gold Scents Unless something happens in the next couple of hours the S&P is going to form a swing low this morning. That is a prerequisite but not a guarantee of a daily cycle bottom. Last week I called attention to the volatility coils forming in the S&P and silver. About 70% of [...]

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